Air conditioning use continues to grow worldwide. There are increasing concerns over climate change and the environmental impact of HVAC equipment. That’s led to a great deal of pressure on the HVAC industry to innovate more efficient solutions. The rate of advancement has been phenomenal, and there are even more improvements on the horizon. Let’s explore how these changes will shape the role of heating and air conditioning in the future.
Higher Efficiency Rating Minimums
In the U.S., the Department of Energy (DOE) determines how we measure HVAC efficiency and sets the minimums. The DOE has been aggressive in response to industry innovations. An example is annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE), which measures the efficiency of fuel-burning furnaces and boilers. The current minimum is 80%. The DOE has updated the minimum to 95%, which goes into effect on January 1, 2029.
Seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) measures cooling efficiency of ACs and heat pumps. Heating seasonal performance factor (HSPF) measures heating efficiency of heat pumps. The DOE has introduced SEER2 and HSPF2, newer versions of these rating systems that account for duct air leakage. Soon, the newer versions will permanently supplant the older ones. The DOE updated SEER and HSPF for 2023 and may update them again before 2030.
The Future of Home HVAC Systems Is Electric
Despite concerns over the environmental impact of air conditioners, the future of HVAC systems is electric. One reason for this is that natural gas is a limited resource. The U.S. has about an 85-year supply at the current usage rates. That said, rates will rise as supply shrinks, and the federal government is planning incentives to encourage the move to electric. Heat pumps outsold furnaces for the first time in 2023, and current tax credits certainly played a role.
Air-Source Heat Pumps
Another reason electric is the future is the evolving sophistication of heat pumps. Heat pump installations provide efficient heating because they transfer existing heat rather than having to produce it. Furnaces and boilers, on the other hand, generate heat. A limiting factor in the adoption of heat pumps is the cold temperature threshold at which they become inefficient. This has improved to the point they’re much more viable in northern climates. The availability of hybrid heating is more widespread as well.
Hybrid Heating Configurations
If you live in a cold climate, you can purchase an air-source heat pump with a low threshold. The problem is that those systems are still relatively expensive. Hybrid heating or a dual-fuel heat pump is an alternative. This is where you have a standard heat pump and furnace. The heat pump provides air conditioning, and it provides heating most of the time. When the temperature falls below the heat pump threshold, the furnace provides the heat instead.
Geothermal Heating and Cooling
In the future, geothermal heat pumps will supplant air-source heat pumps and eliminate the need for hybrid heating. Air-source heat pumps transfer heat from the outdoor air to the indoor air. Geothermal heat pumps transfer it from the ground. Heat energy in the ground is much more abundant and consistent no matter the season and even in very cold climates. Geothermal solutions are still relatively expensive. The good news is that prices continue to fall. There are incentives to help, and the government is considering even more incentives.
Variable Refrigerant Flow
Ductless mini-split systems are a popular option for many homes. They don’t require ducts and avoid the problem of air leakage. These systems are also inherently zoned, and you have the choice of either an AC or a heat pump. Variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems are essentially superior mini-split systems. The main advantage is that they can adjust the refrigerant load for each indoor unit. That greatly reduces energy consumption, heating and cooling costs, and carbon footprints.
More Efficient Smart Thermostats
A smart thermostat can significantly reduce a home’s carbon footprint. Better yet, Project Drawdown estimates that about 60% of American homes will have them by 2050. The problem is that many households use them as traditional digital thermostats. They either never program them or do but rarely update them. The industry is dealing with this problem in two ways. One is smart thermostats that can configure and update themselves. Another is geofencing, which is a more dynamic approach that avoids the scheduling requirement.
Energy Monitoring
Future HVAC systems will do a better job of monitoring, tracking, and analyzing energy usage. This is possible through smart thermostats but also smart hubs. Current implementations already inform homeowners where they’re being efficient and where they aren’t. Systems in economy mode can throttle heating and cooling to use less energy during peak rates. Many utility companies are offering smart thermostat programs, and better support for those programs is emerging on the market.
Real-Time Weather Monitoring
There are already smart thermostats that can monitor the weather via the internet and adjust accordingly. Preheating a home in advance of a cold front, for instance, is much more energy efficient. Expect more smart thermostats to support this feature in the future. Climate change has led to sharp weather changes all across the U.S. That includes areas that haven’t traditionally been prone to those types of drastic fluctuations.
Duct Design and Sealing
There is much greater awareness now about the energy losses associated with air leakage. It’s what motivated the DOE to update SEER and HSPF to SEER2 and HSPF2. New duct design and installation techniques result in much more efficient ductwork. There’s also growing awareness of duct sealing among homeowners. The Environmental Protection Agency recommends the aerosol duct sealing method, and upcoming innovations will make it even more effective.
HVAC Zoning
Systems like mini-split systems and VRF are inherently zoned. Central air conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces are not, but zoning is an option. Zoning is possible through variable-speed blowers and ventilation upgrades like adjustable dampers and smart vents. Installing HVAC zoning systems is relatively expensive compared to a traditional central system. Zoning will become more prevalent as prices decrease and there are more energy incentives from manufacturers, utility companies, and the government.
Predictive Maintenance
Predictive maintenance is perhaps the biggest difference in the future role of heating and cooling systems. It has made a dramatic difference in commercial applications, and manufacturers are now implementing it into their residential systems. Units with these capabilities can detect static air pressure changes to alert you to swap out the air filter. They can also detect when the system runs outside standard parameters. You can then schedule a diagnostic. If necessary, our technician can perform the maintenance or preventative repair you need well in advance of an unexpected repair occurring.
Local Heating and Cooling Experts in Jacksonville
If you’d like to assess your home’s HVAC system with an eye toward the future, J&W Heating and Air + Plumbing can help. Our company has been serving homeowners throughout Jacksonville and the surrounding areas since 1966. We install, maintain, and repair gas and electric furnaces, air-source and geothermal heat pumps, air conditioners, and ductless mini-split systems. Our team performs energy audits and cleans, seals, and insulates ducts. We also install and service programmable and smart thermostats, air purifiers, UV lights, dehumidifiers, and humidifiers. Our company has plumbers who clean drains and pipes. They also repipe water, sewer, and gas lines. We also install and repair kitchen and bathroom fixtures and water heaters.
Call J&W Heating and Air + Plumbing today or contact us online to schedule an appointment in Jacksonville.
